On Thursday’s War Room, Mark Mitchell of Rasmussen Polling unveiled a detailed analysis of the current polling landscape, specifically focusing on a hypothetical presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
The key takeaway from Mitchell’s presentation was that Trump is maintaining a steady lead over Harris despite a brief surge for the Vice President following Barack Obama’s recent endorsement.
Mitchell reported, “Donald Trump is still beating Kamala Harris by five points in a two-way matchup.”
He noted that this data is based on six polling days and reflects a broader trend rather than short-term fluctuations. Mitchell criticized early polls showing Harris with an advantage, suggesting they were skewed by media bias and incomplete data.
“A lot of people rush to put polls out… and I think there’s reasons that you could look at those polls internals and say, that’s really not what’s happening,” he argued.
The so-called “Obama bounce,” a spike in Harris’s popularity following the endorsement, has since dissipated. Mitchell highlighted this with the observation, “Trump has steadily clawed that lead back, and he’s up four points on the 30th, five points on the 31st.” Mitchell told host Dave Brat that this rebound illustrates Trump’s resilience amid a barrage of media scrutiny and attacks.
Mitchell critically analyzed the demographics, noting that while Trump is gaining among men and independents, his support among women and younger voters remains more volatile. “He’s losing a little more with 18 to 39-year-olds… but he was tied in the two-way matchup,” Mitchell explained.
This variability suggests that while Trump’s overall position is strong, certain voter groups may still be influenced by ongoing events and media narratives.
The pollster also discussed the broader electoral landscape, indicating that Trump’s lead is “comfortably outside the margin of error” and in line with other reputable polls. “The race is looking more like a two-way matchup,” Mitchell said, implying that despite some fluctuations, Trump’s overall advantage remains significant.
Mitchell’s data also underscored the limitations of multi-way matchups versus two-way races. He observed that in multi-way polls, Trump’s lead narrows to about 1.5 points, compared to a more consistent five-point lead in two-way scenarios. This discrepancy suggests that support for third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is minimal, impacting the overall dynamics of the race.
Mitchell’s analysis paints a picture of a resilient Trump maintaining a solid lead over Harris despite the temporary boost from high-profile endorsements and media coverage.
The data he collected reflects a stable trend in favor of Trump, even as the race evolves with changing voter sentiments and external influences.
As Mitchell concluded, “Donald Trump is settling into a 49-50 point range,” indicating a strong and consistent lead in the face of ongoing challenges.
For fuller context, watch the full segment featuring Mark Mitchell:
