Despite significant policy victories, President Donald Trump’s polling numbers are slipping in key demographic groups. In a high-priority briefing on the WarRoom, Steve Bannon and pollster Richard Baris issued a stern warning to the MAGA movement: “We’re losing the messaging war.”

Baris revealed the formation of a new alliance of independent pollsters committed to truth over media manipulation. Their findings show that Trump’s economic accomplishments are being buried under unpopular foreign policy decisions and a chaotic press strategy. Urgent corrective action is needed now to stabilize public support.

QUICK CLIP:

RICHARD BARIS: Trump has the best wage growth in 60 years, but it’s being overshadowed.

Tax cuts are popular. Ukraine funding and Epstein mishandlings are not.

You can’t keep peeling off parts of your base and expect to stay strong.@Peoples_Pundit pic.twitter.com/FJ3oezc4mt

— Bannon’s WarRoom (@Bannons_WarRoom) July 16, 2025

POLLING CRISIS AMID SUCCESSFUL POLICY EXECUTION:

Baris noted that President Trump is achieving major wins—such as tariffs, wage growth, and tax relief—but they’re not registering with the public.

"This should have been a day of celebration… Instead, it was being stepped on.”

The data shows that wins, such as “best wage growth in 60 years,” are overshadowed by unpopular foreign policy moves and media distractions.

"Being stepped on by another intervention in the Middle East that very few people wanted any part of whatsoever.”

ALARMING SHIFTS IN TRUMP’S COALITION:

Baris presented polling that shows erosion in critical segments of Trump’s 2020 base.

"Some of his biggest decline this month came from [ages] 18 to 29… Hispanic men.”

Meanwhile, Trump made minor gains with college-educated voters, but Baris dismissed this as politically irrelevant:

"It’s like a pointless bump that’s going to evaporate in a month or two.”

The polling also showed Democrats have taken the lead on the generic ballot for the first time since Trump’s second presidency began.

"That is the situation… and I’m not a sugarcoater.”

NEW POLLING COALITION FOR ACCURACY AND ACCOUNTABILITY:

Baris announced the launch of the National Association of Independent Pollsters, including Big Data, Rasmussen, Trafalgar, and InsiderAdvantage.

"If we’re not accurate, there is no trust… and without trust, George Gallup’s vision completely falls apart.”

The group’s mission is to restore integrity in public polling and provide the MAGA movement with real-time, honest data.

"Somebody needs to be there to serve as that gauge… to tell people you can trust these pollsters or you can’t.”

CAUSE OF ERROR—RESPONSE BIAS AND BAD METHODS:

Baris attributed much of the polling failure to response bias and poor methodology:

"The differences really are because the pollster is talking to different groups of people.”

He emphasized that Big Data’s model adjusts for these issues by using larger sample sizes and consistent methods:

"Bigger is better in polling… if you know exactly who you’re talking to month in and month out.”

CALL TO ACTION—FIX THE MESSAGING:

Baris made it clear: Trump’s policies are working, but voters aren’t hearing about them.

"If you’re in the working class, if you’re in the service industry… I don’t know if people know that their taxes got cut.”

He warned that without a clear communications push, even historic wins will get lost under media noise and Democrat framing.

"The White House did lose the massaging war on this bill… and that’s the press release we have out today.”

CONCLUSION:
The data is clear. President Trump’s base is eroding not because of failed policy, but failed messaging. Bannon and Baris are urging MAGA forces to pivot now. Victory depends on message discipline, real data, and voter education.

ORDERS OF ACTION:

Hammer home economic wins: wage growth, tariffs, tax relief.

Target key voter groups: 18–29-year-olds, Hispanic men.

Amplify independent polling voices to counter establishment narratives.

Stay on message: Avoid foreign entanglements and focus on America First.

FINAL WARNING:

"You can’t keep peeling off little parts of your base and then expect your numbers to stay strong.” — Richard Baris

For more context, watch this full interview with Richard Barris: