Mission Report: Understand the Thucydides Trap: Steve Bannon and Ben Harnwell’s Warning for America’s Future
Introduction to the Thucydides Trap
In a powerful Wednesday conversation on WarRoom, Steve Bannon and Ben Harnwell touched on a critical concept that they believe frames the current political climate in the U.S. — the Thucydides Trap. This idea, originally proposed by historian Graham Allison, warns of the dangers when a rising power challenges an established power. The result is often conflict, as the old power resists the rise of the new.
Bannon and Harnwell argue that this dynamic is playing out in America right now, where the populist surge led by the America First movement is clashing with the entrenched elites who have controlled the nation for decades. Their conversation dives deep into this metaphor, using it to describe the battle between Trump’s supporters and the so-called "sociopathic overlords” who dominate Washington, D.C., Silicon Valley, and global financial institutions.
What Is the Thucydides Trap?
The Thucydides Trap gets its name from the ancient Greek historian Thucydides, who chronicled the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta. In his writings, Thucydides observed that the war was inevitable because the fear caused by Athens’ growing power drove Sparta to take preemptive action.
In modern politics, this concept is applied to the rise of new powers and the resistance they face from established forces. As Bannon and Harnwell explain, we are witnessing a similar struggle within the United States today. The challenge isn’t between two countries — it’s between different ideologies, economic classes, and political power structures.
America’s Political Battle: Old Power vs. New Forces
For Bannon and Harnwell, the Thucydides Trap isn’t just a theoretical concept; it’s the reality of what America is facing. The populist movement, led by figures like Donald Trump, represents a shift in power — a new force rising against the establishment elites who have long controlled the political landscape.
In their discussion, Bannon and Harnwell note that the elites in Washington, Silicon Valley, and global financial centers are determined to maintain their dominance. They refer to these figures as "sociopathic overlords,” individuals whose power depends on maintaining the current system. As the America First movement gains momentum, these elites will do whatever it takes to suppress the rising power.
The Thucydides Trap applies here because the more Trump’s populist base grows, the more the elites will fear losing control. According to Bannon, this fear leads to drastic measures aimed at maintaining the status quo — everything from legal attacks on political figures to media suppression. It’s a dangerous dynamic that could lead to severe consequences if not addressed.
A Dangerous Crossroad: How Does the Thucydides Trap Apply to Today?
As the conversation between Bannon and Harnwell unfolds, they argue that America’s political landscape is at a crossroads. Just like Athens and Sparta, the power struggle in the U.S. is inevitable. The old elites, who represent the established political system, are resisting the rising populist wave led by Trump and the America First movement.
This clash is no longer just about policy differences. It’s about who controls the future of the country. Harnwell warns that the entrenched elites will use every tool at their disposal — from the media to government agencies — to fight back against the populist surge. The rising tide of populism threatens to undo decades of elite control, and these elites will not go down without a fight.
The U.S. Is Heading Toward a Pivotal Moment
Bannon and Harnwell agree that this moment in history is a critical one for the U.S. If the populist movement, which is now synonymous with Trump’s America First policies, cannot overcome the resistance of the entrenched powers, the country could face instability.
Just like Sparta, the elites may take extreme measures to hold onto power. The fight for America’s future is not just political; it’s existential. Bannon and Harnwell see 2025 as a year that will shape the nation’s future. It will be a year where the battle between old power and new will intensify. The stakes are higher than ever.
Conclusion: Understanding the Thucydides Trap in Modern America
The Thucydides Trap provides a lens through which we can understand the current political struggles in the U.S. Bannon and Harnwell’s conversation reveals that America is in the midst of a historic shift. The clash between rising populist forces and entrenched elites is inevitable, and the outcomes are uncertain.
By understanding the Thucydides Trap, we can see the warning signs of a larger conflict — a conflict that could define America’s future. The America First movement, with Trump at its helm, is challenging the long-standing political elites. Whether America can navigate this trap will determine its future for generations to come. The mission is clear: recognize the battle unfolding and understand the consequences of ignoring this pivotal moment in history.
For more context, watch the full discussion from Wednesday’s WarRoom:
How willing is MAGA to walk through a dangerous neighborhood after dark? How close to that neighborhood are you willing to go? The enemy understands this dilemma. What if Merchan tests MAGA resolve by putting Trump in an orange jumpsuit for seven days? How would this test go? What would it tell us about ourselves? What would it tell them about us? Would MAGA numbers begin to deteriorate?