OPERATIONAL INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY (OIS)

Subject: Steve Bannon and Mark Mitchell Warn MAGA Base of Polling Collapse Linked to Epstein Cover-up, Threats to Trump’s Political Capital, and Erosion of Justice

Quick Clip:

Mark Mitchell On The Handling Of The Epstein Files: "If This Isn't Fixed It Might Hang Over Trump's Administration" @honestpollster pic.twitter.com/Rkz57ObNQw

— Bannon’s WarRoom (@Bannons_WarRoom) July 15, 2025

I. OVERVIEW

This report outlines a high-level briefing between Steve Bannon and top pollster Mark Mitchell regarding President Donald Trump’s dramatic approval drop. Despite recent political wins, including ending the Iran conflict and signing major legislation, Trump’s numbers are plunging. Mitchell blames public outrage over the unresolved Jeffrey Epstein case and the perceived failure to deliver justice. Their joint assessment: MAGA’s support base is shaken, and the fallout could derail Trump’s political momentum if not addressed fast.

II. POLITICAL MOMENTUM BROKEN

Mitchell opened bluntly: "Donald Trump came in with really great approval numbers… and it’s plunging.” Just weeks ago, Trump held a +8 net approval rating. But following the DOJ’s declaration that Epstein’s case was closed, support nosedived: "He’s lost 12 points. Now, he’s underwater four points.”

Mitchell emphasized that Trump’s momentum was undeniable: "Even the media was saying they’ve never seen a president on this kind of run.” He credited Trump for "taking out the Iranian nuclear weapons program” and delivering "his signature legislation.” But the Epstein narrative is eroding MAGA confidence.

III. EPSTEIN: A CATALYST FOR DISTRUST

Mitchell warns this isn’t about a dead financier: "This is not about a guy who died in 2019. This is about a representation of two-tier justice.” Polling confirms that voters do not believe the FBI or DOJ:

• Only 21% trust the official Epstein findings.

• Just 33% of Republicans say Epstein committed suicide.

• Among independents, Trump’s net approval is now –19.

Mitchell called it "a major rug pull,” adding, "If this isn’t fixed, this might hang over Trump’s administration. It could be his Afghanistan going into the fall.”

IV. NATIONAL SECURITY & AMERICA FIRST

Mitchell drew a direct connection between justice and national strength: "This is a proxy for government accountability and redress for the Deep State.” The case represents a litmus test for whether the America First movement can hold corrupt elites to account.

Bannon echoed the danger: "What would you have anticipated if this hadn’t come up?” he asked. Mitchell replied, "Trump was probably a day or two away from crossing over Obama’s numbers.” Now he’s polling below Biden.

V. WARNING TO THE BASE

The polling "is brutal,” Mitchell said. He urged preparation and pressure: "He can’t just be kicking around at 48 and go into 2026 with a whole lot of open questions about strong campaign promises.”

MAGA voters, he implied, must demand action—not silence—on Epstein, DOJ corruption, and deep state games. Mitchell pointed out: "Only 14% of independents say this case is closed.” The majority of Americans—left, right, and center—believe "there are dozens of powerful and wealthy offenders who need to face justice.”

VI. IMMEDIATE ACTIONS

Mitchell’s suggested course of action is clear:

• Demand accountability on Epstein.

• Re-center MAGA around justice reform and transparency.

• Pressure elected officials and DOJ leaders to act.

• Strengthen communication with independents and restore trust.

VII. CONCLUSION

The conversation between Bannon and Mitchell reveals a critical vulnerability: failure to address government accountability could sabotage Trump’s momentum and fracture the MAGA coalition. The Epstein scandal is not just a conspiracy—it’s a credibility crisis. In Mitchell’s words: "This is not going to go away. The Democrats are going to keep talking about it because they need something to talk about.”

The America First movement must act swiftly—or risk losing the narrative, the numbers, and the next election.

For more context, watch this whole WarRoom segment from Tuesday featuring Mark Mitchell:

Mark Mitchell On The Handling Of The Epstein Files: “If This Isn’t Fixed It Might Hang Over Trump’s Administration”