Mark Mitchell, a polling analyst with Rasmussen Reports, appeared on the Saturday episode of the WarRoom and provided a detailed breakdown of the aftermath of the recent presidential debate, highlighting recent significant shifts in voter sentiment and the implications for Democratic voters.
“After the debate, many commentators said that Joe Biden should step aside as this year’s presidential candidate and let the Democratic party choose another candidate. 65% of voters agreed with that statement,” Mitchell told host, Dave Brat.
Mitchell emphasized the debate’s seismic impact on public opinion, pointing out dramatic swings in favor of former President Donald Trump among various demographic groups.
Mitchell began by underscoring the overwhelming consensus among likely American voters that Donald Trump decisively won the debate, with a striking 35-point margin (57% to 22%) over Joe Biden.
“American likely voters told us that Donald Trump won the debate by an astounding 57 to 22 percent. That is a 35-point margin when pre-debate it was only a 10-point margin,” Mitchell told Brat.
This marked a sharp increase from a pre-debate 10-point margin, indicating a substantial shift in public perception in just one week. He noted that a significant % of the electorate, 88%, reported watching at least part of the debate, with 53% watching it in its entirety.
Mitchell highlighted the profound changes in attitudes among specific voter groups, particularly among Black voters and Democrats. Pre-debate expectations favored Biden by 34 points among Black voters, but post-debate, Trump held a significant advantage of 19 points—a swing of 43 points. Similarly, Democratic voters, who initially favored Biden by 52 points pre-debate, saw their support drop to a 20-point lead for Biden post-debate—a 32-point swing toward Trump.
Mitchell emphasized that only 45% of Democrats believed Biden won the debate, compared to 25% who thought Trump did, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction among the party faithful. Moreover, Mitchell pointed out that there was significant discourse, even among commentators, after the debate about whether Biden should step aside as the Democratic presidential candidate. A notable 65% of voters agreed that Biden should step aside, with strong sentiment (38%) supporting this view.
Looking at potential replacements for Biden, Mitchell highlighted Kamala Harris’s prospects, noting that while some favored her as a replacement candidate, a majority (50%) of voters believed the Democratic Party should choose someone else. This sentiment was echoed across demographic lines, including among Black voters and women, where Harris did not garner strong support as Biden’s potential replacement.
Mitchell’s analysis underscored a profound shift in Democratic voter sentiment following the debate, with implications for the upcoming presidential race. He suggested that the debate’s outcome had exacerbated existing concerns about Biden’s candidacy, particularly regarding issues of age and performance. Mitchell also hinted at the influence of mainstream media on shaping voter perceptions, suggesting that media narratives and coverage could play a pivotal role in shaping future political dynamics.
In conclusion, Mitchell’s insights painted a picture of significant turbulence within Democratic ranks, with a growing chorus of voices questioning Biden’s viability as the party’s standard-bearer. The data he presented highlighted a critical juncture in the election cycle, where public opinion and media dynamics could heavily influence the Democratic Party’s strategy moving forward.
For more context, watch the full WarRoom segment:
