Betting Markets and Polling Favor Trump’s Chances Amid Swing State Gains

During a Monday WarRoom appearance, Mark Mitchell joined Ben Harnwell and discussed how betting markets, polls, and recent voting patterns appear to favor Donald Trump strongly. According to Mitchell and Harnwell, betting platforms like PolyMarkets and various polling indicators all reflect what could be a significant Trump lead, with consistent gains in key swing states. Their discussion focused on how betting markets, often underestimated, may prove more accurate than media-driven polling narratives.

Betting Markets Show Clear Trump Advantage

Betting markets, Harnwell and Mitchell argue, are showing a substantial Trump lead over Kamala Harris, with platforms such as PolyMarkets indicating a Trump advantage of over 35 points. Mitchell explained that despite large, coordinated efforts by "whales”—wealthy, individual bettors—earlier in the race, these betting margins have held steady in Trump’s favor. "The betting market is going to be right in the end,” Mitchell stated, emphasizing that betting platforms tend to reflect public sentiment in ways traditional polls may miss.

The discussion also touched on international bets, including those placed via VPNs and from overseas sources, which have contributed to market shifts favoring Trump. For Harnwell, betting markets are "wise” to Trump’s momentum, especially in swing states where they see in-person voter turnout aligning closely with Trump support.

Trump’s Consistent Swing State Polling Advantage

Mitchell talked about Trump’s "Trump plus two” position nationally and added that their own data has shown Trump consistently leading in critical swing states. In Virginia, a recent poll shows Trump pulling ahead by two points, with a notable in-person voter turnout expected to favor him by a 51% to 44% margin on Election Day. "All the signs are really starting to add up,” he commented, signaling that early voter patterns are showing a likely Trump outperformance on Election Day.

Mitchell claims this "Trump plus two” edge, which has remained steady across various daily trackers, has set Trump up for possible victories across most swing states. The challenge, according to Mitchell, is that mainstream media has tended to report selectively, sharing polls that favor Kamala Harris or other Democratic candidates while ignoring more conservative-leaning polls that have shown stronger Trump support.

Polling Platforms and Independent Media Outlets Reflect Trump’s Favorability

According to Mitchell and Harnwell, major polling aggregators like Silver Decision and 538 have been less inclined to emphasize Trump’s gains, even as their data suggests he’s in a competitive position. As Harnwell observed, mainstream networks like CNN and MSNBC tend to downplay Trump’s polling strength to maintain the narrative that Kamala Harris or other candidates have a chance. "The media is cherry-picking other pollsters to say Trump isn’t winning,” he stated, describing what he sees as a consistent bias.

Instead, he recommends relying on betting markets and independent polling outlets that continue to show Trump’s strength. Harnwell believes these more nuanced indicators reflect the reality that Trump is likely on track to outperform in swing states, noting, "You’re not going to hear it on MSNBC or CNN.”

Tracking Swing State Momentum Through Rasmussen Reports

For those looking to follow these trends closely, Mitchell encouraged viewers to keep track of Rasmussen’s daily updates and polls in 12 key swing states. He shared, "You can sign up for a free daily newsletter or support us with a reader subscription.” Rasmussen plans to release state-by-state polling data throughout the week, which they expect will showcase how swing states are trending, potentially confirming the betting markets’ confidence in Trump.

In sum, Mitchell and Harnwell argue that between betting markets, steady polling leads, and swing state momentum, Trump’s chances look favorable. Harnwell concluded by praising the "heroic” efforts of those tracking these trends, underscoring the value of accurate reporting in a media landscape he views as reluctant to acknowledge Trump’s growing support.

For more context, watch the entire WarRoom segment from Monday:

Mark Mitchell: "The Betting Markets Have Done A Better Job At Interpreting Polls Than The MSM Has”