Republicans in Nevada are seeing a 95% improvement in early voting turnout compared to previous elections, as Democrats struggle to mobilize their base. Key to this shift is Republican success in engaging low-propensity voters, signaling a major challenge for Democrats heading into 2024, according to Luke Mahoney and Alex Degrasse, who discussed these details on Monday night’s WarRoom.
95% Improvement in GOP Early Voting
Alex DeGrasse and Luke Mahoney highlighted a dramatic shift in early voting in Nevada for the 2024 election. Compared to 2022, where Democrats had a 40,000-ballot lead after the first day of early voting, this year that gap has shrunk to just 1,800 ballots. DeGrasse emphasized this as a "95% improvement” for Republicans, showcasing the party’s growing momentum in a critical swing state.
Mahoney underscored the importance of this achievement: "This is absolutely phenomenal,” he said, noting how this drastic improvement in early turnout could shape the entire election.
Democrats Relying on High-Propensity Voters
One key reason for the Republican surge is that Democrats are relying heavily on their high-propensity voters—those who have consistently voted in the last four elections. According to DeGrasse, "43.7% of early voting Democrats are four out of four voters.” This means Democrats are essentially pulling from their most reliable base. Meanwhile, Republicans are expanding their reach by engaging lower-propensity voters, a group that historically has been harder to mobilize.
Republicans Mobilizing Low-Propensity Voters
Mahoney and DeGrasse explained the significance of getting "low-propensity voters”—those who have only voted in one or two of the last four elections—off the sidelines and into the polls early. "We are getting a lot more of our people out,” DeGrasse said. He further noted that while Democrats are focusing on their consistent voters, Republicans are working hard to bring in those less likely to vote.
This effort is crucial because, as Mahoney pointed out, "getting those people off the board is huge.” It increases overall turnout, and by banking these early votes, Republicans can secure a higher baseline of support before Election Day even arrives.
Changing the Model to Win the Election
Both DeGrasse and Mahoney stressed that the real goal is to expand the voter model. In Nevada and elsewhere, Republicans are focusing on breaking the traditional turnout patterns by pulling in voters who may not have voted in previous elections. "When you turn out that voter that’s only voted one out of the last four times and you get them to vote early, that’s key,” said Mahoney.
By doing this, Republicans can push beyond just the loyal base and gather more votes early. "It’s all a model,” DeGrasse said, adding that this approach helps them get more votes overall and sets the stage for success in November.
A Clear Path to Defeating Democrats
The Republican strategy of focusing on turnout is crucial in defeating Democrats at the ballot box. DeGrasse and Mahoney believe that mobilizing low-propensity voters and banking votes early will allow Republicans to outpace Democrats in key states like Nevada. "That is how we crush the Democrat Party,” Mahoney concluded, emphasizing the peaceful, democratic process through which Republicans aim to win.
With this early voting success, Republicans are setting the stage for a potential victory in 2024, leaving Democrats scrambling to adjust their strategies before Election Day.
For more of our coverage on Nevada:
"Nevada on the Cusp of Turning Red”: NVGOP Bold Prediction as Early Voting Kicks Off
For more context from Degrasse and Mahoney from Monday night, watch:
