Situation Report
Current Status:
Oscar El Blue Ramirez, a Mexican journalist for Real America’s Voice, reported on intensifying migration trends at the U.S.-Mexico border. He highlighted a recent surge involving thousands of migrants, spurred by shifting expectations around U.S. immigration policy as the 2024 election looms. According to Ramirez, many migrants believed a Democratic win would ease their entry. But as signs point to a potential Trump victory, there is growing uncertainty.
Resources for this article: About the UN Global Compact
On Thursday, Ramirez provided the WarRoom with insight into the situation that started on Election Day, stating, "3,000 people started walking” toward the U.S. border. Many anticipated a continuation of what they saw as lenient policies under Biden. Now, as a return of Trump becomes likely, migrants are unsure of their next steps.
Key Drivers of Migration:
Ramirez highlighted several forces behind the migration spike. Key among these is the United Nations Global Compact on Migration, which he described as problematic. This Compact, supported by the Biden administration, involves international agreements guiding migration policy. Ramirez argued that the Compact limits the U.S.’s ability to secure the border and has "put control in the hands of the United Nations and their proxies.” Under this framework, NGOs and international bodies play significant roles, often working closely with migrants across borders.
According to Ramirez, the Compact effectively allows NGOs operating in Mexico to facilitate migration without U.S. oversight. Many of these NGOs, he claimed, have strong connections to the organized crime groups smuggling migrants. Ramirez warned, "This international treaty…means the border is in the hands of foreign powers.”
Role of NGOs and the Cartels:
Ramirez explained that Mexican and Central American cartels have become deeply embedded in the migration process, taking advantage of the Compact and NGO presence. He reported that migrants pay cartels anywhere from $300 to $500 just to cross small sections of the Mexico-Guatemala border on makeshift rafts. Cartels also charge fees for passage through controlled territories and frequently engage in kidnapping, extortion, and violence against migrants. "The cartels know this is an opportunity,” Ramirez stated, adding that their influence has surged as NGOs guide migrants across Mexico and toward the U.S.
Why People Should Care:
With a possible Trump administration on the horizon, Ramirez predicts major policy shifts. He believes that Trump will likely exit the U.N. Global Compact, eliminate funding for the NGOs operating in Mexico, and restore direct control over U.S. border policy. However, before January 20th, when a potential new administration might take office, Ramirez expects a flood of migrants. Cartels, he warned, will seize this window to profit, and NGOs will mobilize resources to accelerate migration.
The Global Compact’s influence extends into the U.S. asylum process. Under this framework, migrants arriving at non-official entry points can still claim asylum under international protections, limiting U.S. Border Patrol’s enforcement power. Ramirez described it as "diplomatic extortion,” arguing that NGOs and international actors exploit the Compact to overwhelm U.S. border defenses.
Steve Bannon’s Concerns:
Steve Bannon weighed in, expressing concern about the influence of these NGOs. He warned that the NGOs supported by the Global Compact could pose severe challenges to a new administration trying to enforce tougher border policies. "If Trump comes back in, these NGOs will be out in force to stir chaos,” Bannon commented. He noted that these groups, in collaboration with activist networks and cartels, may actively resist efforts to control the border, calling the situation "a ticking time bomb of lawfare.”
Bannon pointed out that the Biden administration had funneled millions into these NGOs, facilitating their expansion throughout Mexico and Central America. This funding, he argued, has only strengthened the networks that would challenge future enforcement. "The U.N., these NGOs—they’ve got their hands all over this,” Bannon remarked. He added that even if Trump moves to curb the Compact’s influence, the on-the-ground impact of the NGOs will linger, likely sparking protests and escalating tension at the border.
Implications for the Border and Security:
Ramirez and Bannon foresee a border overwhelmed by migrants before January 2025. Ramirez warned, "If Trump returns, NGOs and activists will paint this as a humanitarian crisis and make him look cruel.” He anticipates protests within Mexico, intensified cartel operations, and significant pressure on both U.S. and Mexican border authorities.
Ramirez concluded that the next administration must address the U.N. Compact, cut off NGO funding, and restore strong border measures. The goal, he stated, is clear: "Take back control from international powers and secure the border for good.”
