Betting Markets and Polling: A Clear Divide

On Monday, Mark Mitchell from Rasmussen Reports appeared on the WarRoom with Ben Harnwell and dissected the disparity between betting markets like PolyMarket and traditional polling data regarding the 2024 election. While betting markets reflect people’s financial stakes on who they think will win, Mitchell highlighted that polling data offers a more scientifically accurate representation of voter intent. “Polling is more accurate,” Mitchell confidently stated, emphasizing that his team’s results, showing Trump leading by two points nationally, align closely with other credible polling outfits.

Betting Markets Reflect Public Perception, Not Voter Reality

Mitchell explained the distinction between betting markets and polling, noting that betting markets gauge public perception rather than actual voting behavior. “What the betting markets are supposed to show is a more accurate take because people are putting their money on the lines,” Mitchell said. Yet, he argued that these markets are often manipulated and don’t always reflect reality. He cited examples of betting swings, such as a flash crash that saw Trump briefly surge by 10 points on PolyMarket, only to stabilize later. "Somebody’s trying to manipulate that market… they can only hold out for so long,” he remarked.

Betting Markets Catching Up to Polls?

Despite the volatility in betting markets, Mitchell believes they eventually reflect polling trends. He noted how markets like PolyMarket are finally catching up with his polling data, which has consistently shown Trump with a lead. "It’s a horrible narrative for Kamala Harris at some point between now and Election Day, it’s going to break into the news that she’s losing,” Mitchell predicted. He added that media outlets are reluctant to acknowledge Trump’s growing lead, but the betting markets are starting to reflect this shift.

Swing States: Key to Trump’s Victory

Mitchell delved into Trump’s prospects in key swing states like Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona, pointing out that despite mainstream media downplaying it, polling indicates Trump is favored to win these crucial battlegrounds. "Any polling in Pennsylvania Kamala Harris is toast,” Mitchell confidently stated. He compared these current polling numbers to those from past elections, where left-leaning polls had shown Biden and Clinton leading by wide margins—only for Trump to outperform expectations. Mitchell believes the same pattern is unfolding now.

"Get Out and Vote”

As the conversation wrapped up, Mitchell made a simple yet powerful call to Trump supporters: vote. "Just get out and do your thing, guys,” he urged. This straightforward message underscores Mitchell’s belief that the polls reflect a genuine opportunity for a Trump victory, but only if supporters turn out in force. He emphasized that no amount of polling or betting can replace actual votes, reminding listeners that the ultimate decision lies with the voters.

Betting Markets Lag, Polls Lead

While betting markets like PolyMarket provide insights into public sentiment, Mark Mitchell stressed that his polling clearly shows where the election stands. Trump’s momentum, particularly in critical swing states, is growing. The betting markets may fluctuate, but Mitchell’s message is clear: the path to victory lies in voter turnout. His final advice? “Get out there and vote.”

For more on our coverage of Mitchell and Rasmussen Polls:

Mark Mitchell Slams Polling Bias: Calls Out Suppression Tactics and Urges Focus on Crosstabs to Find Truth

Mark Mitchell Stands Alone and Reveals the 2024 Election Media Landscape in the WarRoom

Polling Reality Check: Mark Mitchell Exposes Bias in Kamala Harris Surge

For more context on Mitchell’s Monday appearance, watch: