A New York Times article admits that Democrats have some likely defectors in the Senate:
“Republican strategists said they believed they might lose two senators — Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska — while Democratic strategists said they also might lose two — Joe Manchin III of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona.”
If any Democrats break party-line, it will be a clear indicator to the American people that this inquiry is devoid of any demonstrable evidence President Trump engaged in impeachable conduct.
It’s especially concerning for Democrats. If members of the party responsible for launching the inquiry don’t believe it’s valid, why should the American people?
Rep. Will Hurd signaling a ‘no’ vote on impeachment also decreases the likelihood of Republican senators like Sen. Murkowski and Sen. Collins defecting, since he’s the House equivalent of the establishment, Never Trump senators.
The article also acknowledges that the House vote will “likely” be “party-line” and even credited House Republicans with “poking holes in the testimony, making clear that none of the witnesses had actually heard Mr. Trump explicitly.”
Even by the New York Times’s standards, Republicans are in a better place than the Democrats.