(CNN) – The latest economic numbers – 266,000 jobs created in November, unemployment at a 50-year low – make one thing very clear: President Donald Trump has a path to win a second term next year.

Yes, you can quibble about whether the strong November report or the upward revisions in job gains for the last two months or the broader upswing in the economy is due to Trump and his policies. But what we know — both from our political history and more recent polling — is that presidents get credit when the economy is strong and blame when it is weak.


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In a CNN poll released late last month, Trump’s overall job approval was a less-than-stellar 42% while a majority — 54% — disapproved. But those numbers were reversed when people were asked what they thought of Trump’s handling of the economy. On that question, 52% approved while 40% disapproved. (It was the only area in the poll where a majority of respondents approved of the job Trump is doing.)

The simple fact is that a) the economy is strong and b) lots of people give Trump credit for that fact.